Date:  Feb. 22, 2009

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Fundamental Data provided by Investors Business Daily  

F.I.T. STOCKS

Finding High Quality Growth Stocks to Build Healthy Investment Habits.  

MARKET HEALTH:

MARKET IN CORRECTION! 

The BEARS are back in control as the major indexes slashed through the lows created on Jan. 23.  This was the first day of the new rally attempt.  The new rally actually confirmed on Jan. 28, but this rally attempt has ended and we are most definitely in a CORRECTION.   The DOW JONES has already slashed through its November low at 7450 and it remains to be seen whether the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ will be able to hold on to the support at their November lows.  One thing is for sure if the major indexes crash below these major support levels, we may have a ways down to go as I believe many of the major institutions will be watching these same levels with us.

If you are in any stocks right now you are fighting the trend of the market which is never a smart move to make.  Many people I know continue to believe that it is a great time to go bargain hunting for stocks and this could be a fatal mistake to your portfolio if you follow this philosophy.  CASH or selling stocks short are your safest bet right now as the Technical charts clearly have shown us the down trend will continue and the BEARS are winning the fight.  The stock market will eventually side with the BULLS, but we must be patient in our pursuit and wait for the right opportunities.  These opportunities will occur when the selling dries up and buyers step back in on strong volume.  Currently the sellers are ruling the volume battle showing us that they are in control.

We have stated for the past several weeks that there are some major support lines in the stock market indexes that need to be watched very closely, so let's start by looking at the three major indexes and the areas we need to look out for. 

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Index Charts

S&P 500 : 6 Month Chart with Daily Price Bars.

 

Last week we said to look out for the 800 level in the S&P or the $80 level of support in the SPY.  This level was a minor support level for the S&P and the SPY and both were broken last week.  Our next level of support in the S&P is 740, and it is a major support level that all of the big money investors will be looking at.  If the S&P breaks below this level we could be looking at a major sell off in the indexes and the next area of support is a ways down.  Take a look at the long term chart below to get a broader picture of the S&P.

S&P 500: ALL DATA with monthly price bars.

VERY LONG TERM CHART!

The S&P 500 has built a classic double top base that goes back 10 years.  Notice the letter "M" shape the pattern has developed.  In the middle leg of the "M" is the last major low the S&P had in late 2001.  This level turned out to be the bottom of the last bear market and from this point we turned around and spent the next 6 years in a BULL market.  Now we have come full circle and must await what destiny or direction the S&P will take us next.  The 740 support level is one we must watch very carefully to see how the big institutions handle this level.  If the BEARS step in and drive prices through this level we may have a very long way down before there is another support level at 500.  As a growth stock investor, we would like to see the S&P hold the 740 support level and have the BULLS step back in and start buying stocks up again as they did in late 2001.  But please remember we do not HOPE for what the market will do we merely follow what direction it takes us.  The market is the leader and we adjust and follow whatever path it takes. 

So write this very KEY LEVEL OF SUPPORT DOWN (740) and watch the indexes like a HAWK.

KEY AREA of SUPPORT for S&P 500: 740

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NASDAQ: 6 Month chart, daily price bars.

 

The NASDAQ is just resting on its minor support level at 1430.  The new rally attempt in the NASDAQ also failed as prices dropped below the low of the first day it tried to rally on Jan. 23.  Prices on Friday dipped to a low of 1416 wiping out the low that was created on Jan. 23, of 1434.  Once a low is taken out the new rally attempt has failed and we are back in a correcting market.  Now take a look below for a longer view of the possibilities that may occur in the NASDAQ.

NASDAQ: ALL DATA, Monthly price bars.

Very Long Term Chart! 

The NASDAQ is also arriving at a major support level at 1350.  As you can see the NASDAQ has touched this support level 3 different times, as indicated by numbers 1-3.  Number 4 represents the bottom of the bear market that took place from 2000-2002.  At this point the NASDAQ briefly dipped below the lows created at points 1 and 2, held the support level which became the bottom of the bear market and the beginning of the Bull market from 2002-2007.  On the far right of the chart (#3), we are once again dealing with this key area of support and wait to see if this level will hold.  Write the number written below down as it is a critical area that needs to be watched.

KEY AREA OF SUPPORT FOR NASDAQ: 1350

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DOW JONES: 6 Month Chart Daily Price Bars.

The Dow Jones has been the first to penetrate through its November lows at 7450.  This index has been acting the weakest of the big 3 indices.  Prices are currently resting right under this old support level.  Now we must watch carefully to see if the DOW can bounce back up above the old support level at 7450 or if old support will become new resistance.  The keyword for all of the major indexes, but especially for the DOW and S&P is "nationalization" for the banks.  Our support and resistance levels for the DOW and the S&P currently seem to be banking on this very word of "nationalization" and how Wall Street will respond to the news.  Let's take a look at the major support areas below for the DOW on the long term chart.

DOW JONES: ALL DATA with Monthly Price Bars.

Very Long Term Chart. 

As you can see this 7450 is a very critical level for the DOW.  Prices have hit this support level 5 different times over the last 10 years and have been able to bounce up from these levels.  If we continue below these levels the next low is just under 7200 and then 6000 looks like the next major area of support and if we break below this level, 4000 could be the next support level.

Write this support level down: 7197

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STOCK MARKET NEWS:

NASDAQ heads down for the week by -6.1%.  The S&P falls -6.9% and the DOW loses -6.2%.

Nationalization Fears of Citi and Bank of America Rattle the Stock Market.

President Obama delivers his Mortgage Bailout Plan.

Another billionaire, Allen Stanford, is accused of defrauding investor of 8 Billion dollars.

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Top 10 Industries:

  1. Metal Ores-Gold/Silver
  2. Commercial Services Schools
  3. Medical Genetics
  4. Computer Software Medical
  5. Medical Biomed
  6. Food-Flour and Grain
  7. Financepbl Inv Fdbnd
  8. Telecom Wireless Equipment
  9. Retail-Wholesale Auto Parts
  10. Food Misc. Preparation

Important Message:

Please remember as you build your portfolio, you are trying to find the best player for each position, find the best stock in a leading industry.  DO NOT buy two leading stocks in one industry.  We are trying to build the dream team.  One stock, one industry, then fill another position depending on your portfolio size and money management guidelines.  When you list your F.I.T. Stocks selections, please make sure as you enter in your trades that you have not already filled that position or industry.

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F.I.T. Stock Break Outs 2009 

Please review the entry prices and set your stop loss limits.

 

Symbol Newsletter Breakout Base Buy Current % Exit Exit Profit/
  Date Date Pattern Point Price Change Date Price Loss
                   
THOR 12/7/2008 12/16/2008 C/H 29.93 27.84 -7% 2/3/2009 $27.84 -2.09
HMSY 11/23/2008 12/15/2008 U 27.53 34.29 25% 2/6/2009 $34.29 6.76
TWGP 12/21/2008 12/31/2008 U  27.73 25.79 -7% 1/12/2009 $25.79 -1.94
GMCR 12/21/2008 12/29/2008 C/H 38.63 41.4 7%     2.77
SJI 12/7/2008 12/30/2008 C/H 39.13 36.4 -7% 1/15/2009 $36.40 -2.73
QSII 12/21/2008 12/24/2008 D/B 43.63 40.58 -7% 1/5/2009 $40.58 -3.05
DV 1/18/2009 1/21/2009 FB 60.63 56.39 -7% 1/28/2009 $56.39 -4.24
GILD 2/1/2009 2/3/2009 C/H 52.53 50.25 -4%     -2.28
                   
TOTAL x 100 Shares: -680

** MONITOR THE FOLLOWING F.I.T. STOCKS HIGHLIGHTED IN YELLOW CLOSELY FOR PRICE AND VOLUME MOVEMENT! Look for light volume on down days and heavy volume on up days. 

FOLLOW YOUR SELL RULES.  As you can see we went from lots of green last week to lots of red this week suggesting the BEARS are trying to take over again.

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F.I.T. STOCK EDUCATION

Buy Low and Sell High or Buy High and Sell Higher? 

Buy low and sell high is often the way people view stock market investing, but I say buy high and sell higher.  This however is not just my theory it is the theory of some of the greatest investors of our time, like: William O'Neil, Nicolas Darvas, and Dan Zangar.  Why do I make this statement? The simple answer is supply and demand. 

When a stock price goes down more supply is created for this stock but it is not always clear why this supply is being created.  Has the companies product become out dated, has management changed, is there something wrong in the balance sheet, have they not kept up with technology...it could be any of several reasons.    On the other hand, when a stock goes up it shows demand for the companies business.  They may have a new product, new management, created a new technology, changed the way we do business...whatever the case, demand becomes strong for the company and prices start to elevate.  But let us put this supply and demand issue into a more common sense approach.

Many who subscribe to this newsletter are from a strong business background so let me put forth this scenario.  Let us say it is time for two of your employers annual reviews and to divvy out raises.  Employer A comes in and you have noticed over the last year that this employees sales numbers have continually dropped, he does not know his product information, he is to busy mingling with co-workers than getting out and mingling with potential new clients, and all of this has showed up in his production at work.  His sales have decreased and he has no potential new clients in the pipeline.

Employer B comes into work early each day and leaves late each night.  He is constantly researching the company's products and knows the information well.  He consistently works the phone lines networking for more business.  You notice that his sales numbers are consistently getting better each quarter and annually.  This individual has helped increase your company's earnings.

Now for the big question, who will get the raise, employer A or employer B?  I am sure that all of you would say employer B deserves the raise, as he has shown his skill as a salesman and has produced excellent sales numbers for the company.  Because of his production you are willing to pay him more.  This employer has proved his worth and it is all in the numbers.  This employee has proved his worth, his demand.  Buy high and sell higher.

Investing in the stock market should be no different then employer B.  If a company is proving itself through increased earnings, increased sales, profit margins that are increasing, and products that are high in demand, why would we not want to pay more for this company that is proving its value and demand through its production?  Or better yet, why would we want to pay less for a company just because it is cheap, in the hopes that it may go up one day even though the numbers have been decreasing.

In the stock market, just like in every day life, you will usually get what you pay for.  A cheap item is usually cheap because it is made from less expensive materials and wont last as long.  An expensive product is usually made of higher quality materials and will last substantially longer.  We are willing to pay more for the quality behind the more expensive product.  You do not see to many top sales people driving around in a Chevy Cobalt, you see them in a shiny BMW.  They are willing to pay for high quality products.

The same is true in sports.  A team is willing to pay an athlete more money because of the increase in their production.  Their numbers are continually improving, thus giving them in increase in their contract.  If you do not produce you are either cut or put on the trade block.  A company that continues to produce better sales numbers, increased earnings, and stronger profit margins is rewarded through a higher stock price.  Now the question is do you want to put your hard earned investment dollars in the company that is consistently increasing and producing solid numbers or the company that has some uncertainty to it with decreasing numbers and a decreasing stock price because it is cheap.  Pay for performance.  Buy high and sell higher.

As a stock market investor be willing to pay for success.  Be willing to pay for a stock that is continually proving itself through its earnings, sales, and profit margins.  Be willing to pay for quality as supposed to quantity because something is cheap or at a bargain.  In every other aspect of our lives we demand quality and strong performance, so why not demand this from the stocks we buy.  Buy high and sell higher and you will start to improve the numbers in your stock market portfolio.

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The F.I.T. STOCK PLAN  

This week we have NO NEW  F.I.T stocks meeting our F.I.T. Stock Plan criteria.  To make our list of High Quality Growth Stocks a company must show

F- Fundamentals that are Superior

I - Industry Leader or Strong Institutional Buying

T - Technical Charts exhibiting Strong Base Patterns 

F.I.T. Stocks Ready to RUN!

**IMPORTANT NOTICE**  This week we are listing 2 F.I.T. Stocks as buy candidates.   Please remember to go lightly at first.  At this time we only want to buy one or two F.I.T. Stocks at half of our normal position size.  If normally you buy 200 shares, only purchase 100 shares.  Most importantly be very disciplined in your sell rules.  If a F.I.T. Stocks hits the 7% sell rule get out with no questions asked.

* All Charts are One year time frames with weekly price bars *

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Stock:  Schering Plough 

Symbol: SGP

 Fundamentals:  9.9 out of 10

Industry:  Medical Ethical Drugs                          Industry Strength: 7

Technical Pattern: Cup with Handle                                  Avg. Volume: 13,513,200

Pivot or Buy Point: $20.23

Stop Loss: $18.82 or 7%

Profit 1: $22.25 or 10%

Profit 2: $24.27 or 20%

Schering Plough develops prescription drugs for the treatment of high cholesterol, arthritis, and allergies.  It is expected to have annual earnings increase of 63% and last quarters earnings were up 44%.  This is a one year chart of SGP with daily price bars to give you a better idea of how nice of a handle it has shaped.  Notice how the handle had wedged down and now prices are peaking up to the high of the handle.  This is where we need to be on alert and wait for SGP to break above the high on the handle.  If it does, let us jump in at $20.23 on heavy volume.

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Please remember to stick with your Investment business plan, be disciplined, monitor price and volume daily and make money.

Happy and Healthy Investing,

Steve Martin

Founder

www.fitstocks.com

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