Date: July 20, 2008
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Fundamental Data provided by Investors Business Daily
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Market Update
MARKET HEALTH:
MARKET IN CORRECTION! Trying to stage NEW RALLY!
Tuesday, July 15 became the first new day of a rally attempt for the Nasdaq and the DOW and S&P 500 followed on Wednesday staging their first day of a rally attempt. This time, so far, the rally attempt is still in tact. The rules from William O'Neil of Investors Business Daily state that after the first rally day we then wait for a confirmation day. This confirmation should occur 4-11 day's after the first day of the rally and volume should be 1.75% higher then the previous days volume. If this confirmation takes place then it is time to slowly start easing back into the market to test waters.
This week the markets posted solid gains with the Nasdaq jumping 2%, the S&P 500 rose 1.7% and the DOW vaulted 3.6%. For weeks now we have been commenting on the fact that for this market to turn around we would need Oil to decline, the Financial sector to strengthen back up, and for inflation worries to subside. Let's take a look at how the headlines played out this past week.
The Headlines
In the last newsletter Light Sweet Crude Oil had slipped 9% before regaining 10% to end up for the week. The markets in turn sank as Crude began to rise once again. This past week Light Sweet Crude fell once again to the tune of -$16 a barrel this time however Crude DID NOT stage a comeback. The markets took notice and held onto nice gains for the week.
The Financial Sector finally gained some strength, not on good news, but more on not so much bad news. This not so much bad news, the markets took as great news. The best news came from Citigroup, JP Morgan, and Wells Fargo. While none of these big financials beat views, the key was they did not lose as much as was anticipated. Merrill Lynch on the other hand reported abysmal earnings well below the losses that were expected, but even with that news the Financials held up. Next week be on the look out for the earnings report from Bank of America. Let's hope the follow along the same lines as Citigroup and JP Morgan.
On the Mortgage front, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae finally had some up days as U.S. Officials backed rescue plans to help out the mortgage providers. Freddie Mac even got the OK from the SEC to sell stock as a means of raising cash.
Second quarter earnings season opened last week and the outcomes were mixed. While Google, AMD and Microsoft disappointed, eBay, IBM, and Intel showed promise. This week we get a flood of more earnings in the Financial Sector and else where so it will be interesting to see how Wall Street reacts to the reports.
Let's take a look at some interesting charts to get a clearer picture of the action that took place last week. This week we will take a look at the Nasdaq, the DOW, and a representation of the Oil Sector with the ETF United States Oil Fund, and the ETF SPDR Select Financial Sector XLF.
NASDAQ
6 Month Chart with Daily price bars.
Here is the 6 month chart of the Nasdaq. The white arrow represents the first day of the rally. Monday, July 21 will be day five of the new rally attempt so some time next week we would like to see the Nasdaq confirm this new rally with a volume surge of 1.75% higher than the previous days volume. The Nasdaq does have some overhead resistance at 2375 that we will have to watch out for.
The DOW:
The DOW is trying to clear the 11,500 resistance point. It's nice to see volume start to kick back in to the buy side of the DOW. Monday, July 21 will start day 4 of the DOW's rally attempt, if it can pass this test the next stop is 12,000.
The Untied States Oil Fund ETF: USO
Last week we showed you the perfect upwards channel that USO was on. What a difference a week makes. USO ricocheted off its top channel line and crashed right through its bottom channel support line. There were 3 days of heavy selling and if this selling keeps up we could see USO test its last low at $100.
Correlation: Oil dropped big, the Stock Market has nice gains.
The SPDR Financial Select ETF: XLF
XLF has been on a perfect down trend, but on Friday of last week XLF was trying real hard to bust through the upper resistance level of this down trend. Volume really began to surge on the buy side. If earnings tend to not be as bad as expected like we have seen from Citigroup and JP Morgan we may see a continued push up to the $24 level.
What needs to happen next week in the markets?
As we have discussed for weeks now, the Oil Sector must continue to decline, the Financial Sector must sure itself up, and The Big Investors must feel it is safe to start accumulating equities again.
We now have a new rally attempt starting from the major indexes with days 4-9 coming next week, and there is an attempt from the OIL Sector and the Financial Sector to break through previous long term boundary lines. This week will be an interesting week for the major indexes, so watch closely.
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